Stocks Market
Morocco's GDP Growth Set to Reach 4.1% in 2027 Amid Strong Non-Agricultural Expansion
Morocco's economy is projected to maintain robust momentum in 2027 with GDP growth forecast at 4.1%, according to the latest budget execution and macroeconomic framework report accompanying next year's finance bill. The expansion will be driven by a moderate 1.2% increase in agricultural value-added, assuming a harvest of 70 million quintals, alongside continued strength in non-agricultural sectors expected to grow 4.3%. The secondary sector is set to accelerate to 4.9% growth while domestic demand, investment, and foreign trade maintain supportive trends.
Listen to this article
Unlock audio versions of premium articles and more with a Pro subscription.
Morocco's economic outlook for 2027 points to sustained growth momentum, with the national economy projected to expand by 4.1% according to the budget execution and triennial macroeconomic framework report released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance alongside the draft finance law.
Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Dynamics
The projected GDP expansion reflects a balanced contribution from multiple sectors. The agricultural sector is expected to register moderate growth of 1.2% in value-added terms, based on an anticipated harvest of 70 million quintals. Meanwhile, non-agricultural activities are set to maintain robust momentum with value-added growth of 4.3%, demonstrating the continued diversification of Morocco's economic base.
Secondary and Tertiary Sector Performance
The secondary sector emerges as a key growth driver, with value-added projected to accelerate to 4.9% in 2027 from 4.5% in 2026. This acceleration underscores the strengthening of Morocco's industrial and manufacturing capabilities. The tertiary sector will also maintain an elevated growth trajectory, advancing 4.1% compared to 4% the previous year, reflecting sustained momentum in services, tourism, and commercial activities.
Demand-Side Drivers
From the demand perspective, household final consumption (including non-profit institutions) remains a critical growth engine despite a slight moderation, with growth expected to ease from 4.6% in 2026 to 4.3% in 2027. Public administration consumption will continue to provide support with a 6.6% increase, though down from the 9.1% surge recorded in 2026.
Investment activity shows positive momentum, with gross fixed capital formation projected to advance 4.6% versus 4% in 2026. This acceleration confirms the ongoing investment effort and the reinforcement of the national economy's productive capacity, signaling confidence in Morocco's medium-term economic prospects.
External Trade Outlook
Foreign trade is expected to maintain favorable dynamics in 2027. Export volumes of goods and services are forecast to grow 7.3%, up from 6.4% in 2026, while import volumes will increase 7% compared to 5.5% the prior year. The stronger import growth reflects sustained domestic demand vitality and continued investment expansion.
Nominal GDP and Inflation
At current prices, GDP is projected to rise 6% in 2027 following a 6.8% increase in 2026. This nominal growth rate reflects the combination of solid real economic expansion alongside broadly controlled inflation, indicating a stable macroeconomic environment.