Casablanca Stock Exchange Holds Steady Amid Low Volumes and External Risks

1. MASI Takes a Pause

After six straight sessions of gains that lifted the index by 5.72% from 3‑7 August, the MASI slowed down. It fell 0.17 % on Monday, 0.68 % on Tuesday, rebounded 0.65 % on Wednesday and closed almost flat on Thursday. The market was closed on Friday for the Oued Eddahab Loyalty holiday.

At the end of the four‑day session the index stood at 18,819.08 points, down from 18,864 points a week earlier – a weekly drop of 0.24 %. Year‑to‑date performance is now slightly negative at –0.14 %. The broader MASI 20 fell 0.81 % over the week and remains down 8.5 % since January.

Overall, the movement looks more like a consolidation after the strong early‑August rally rather than a genuine trend reversal.

2. Trading Volumes Have Fallen

Liquidity followed the same pattern. The four sessions generated roughly MAD 752 million in turnover, with daily volumes ranging between MAD 148 million and MAD 217 million. By contrast, the single session on 7 August accounted for MAD 560 million.

Mid‑August typically sees a dip in activity, but lower liquidity means that isolated orders can move prices more sharply, especially in less‑traded stocks.

The market also became more selective. On Thursday, Managem and Cosumar each attracted about MAD 39 million of trading, while Alliances saw roughly MAD 29 million.

3. Q2 Results Are Starting to Filter In

Company news was plentiful this week. Addoha reported a consolidated turnover of MAD 1.408 billion for H1, up 9 % year‑on‑year, with pre‑sales increasing 11 %.

Ciments du Maroc posted a non‑consolidated revenue rise of 18.1 % in Q2, lifting its six‑month growth to 4.8 % after a weather‑hit first quarter.

SMI saw a 36 % surge in H1 revenue to MAD 852 million, driven largely by higher silver prices.

Alliances announced Q2 revenue of MAD 803 million, a 30 % increase, taking its six‑month total to MAD 1.418 billion. Net debt fell to MAD 1.179 billion from MAD 1.278 billion three months earlier. Its shares closed Thursday at MAD 424.20, up 6.05 % from the previous Friday.

Investors will keep digesting the full set of semi‑annual figures – margins, net earnings, cash generation and debt evolution – over the coming weeks.

4. The 19,000‑Point Barrier Remains Unbroken

The chart picture has not changed: the MASI is still flirting with the 19,000‑point level but has yet to sustain a clear break. After a near‑6 % rise in five sessions, the index now sits roughly 1 % below the milestone.

This zone will be the first key level to watch. A durable upside breakout would confirm the rebound; another failure could keep the market stuck in a range‑bound hesitation.

5. Only Three Trading Days This Week

The exchange will be open Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before closing on 20 and 21 August for the King and People Revolution holiday and Youth Day. The shortened week further squeezes volume and comes at the height of summer when many participants are away.

The following week is also affected by the expected holidays on 25 and 26 August for Eid Al‑Mawlid Annabaoui, pending the religious calendar.

Given the limited session count, price moves should be interpreted cautiously, particularly for thinly‑traded stocks.

6. Geopolitical Risk: Strait of Ormuz Remains a Pressure Point

Expected de‑escalation in the Gulf has not materialised. Tensions over the Ormuz Strait persist, with new attacks on vessels reported on Friday and the United States signalling tougher economic pressure on Tehran.

While Gulf markets ended the weekend in the green, Brent crude rose to USD 88.52 per barrel (+1.67 %), reflecting ongoing geopolitical friction.

For Morocco, higher oil prices would pressure the trade balance of a net energy importer and could reignite inflation and energy‑cost concerns.

Later this week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its July meeting. The Fed kept its policy rate at 3.50‑3.75 % but three members favored a hike. Market participants will watch the level of disagreement ahead of the September decision.

In summary, short‑term market direction will hinge on whether the MASI can preserve its early‑August bounce around the 18,800‑point area and on how the upcoming corporate disclosures affect sentiment. With only three sessions scheduled, a clearer signal will likely emerge at month‑end.