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Bank Al-Maghrib Likely to Hold Policy Rate at 2.25% Through 2026 – AGR Forecasts an Extended Monetary Pause
Attijari Global Research (AGR) expects Morocco’s central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25 % until the end of 2026, signalling a prolonged pause in monetary tightening. The outlook reflects uncertainty around the lasting impact of the energy shock on imported inflation, while domestic factors such as a robust agricultural season and low underlying inflation provide a cushion against higher rates.
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AGR’s Core Forecast
Attijari Global Research (AGR) projects that Bank Al‑Maghrib will keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25 % through the end of 2026. In its latest note – “Research Report – Fixed Income” – the analysts describe the outlook as a “prolonged monetary pause” while the central bank awaits clearer data on the lingering energy shock and its influence on imported inflation.
Why the Rate Is Expected to Stay Put
- International Brent crude prices are slowly normalising, which should ease pressure on domestic prices.
- Morocco’s medium‑term trajectory points toward disinflation, giving policymakers room to observe rather than act.
- However, the persistence of the external energy shock, rising global inflation, and a tightening stance by major foreign central banks keep domestic inflation risks above the 1.5 % target, potentially reaching 2 % YoY by 2027.
Domestic Shields Against Higher Inflation
AGR highlights two internal factors that could temper inflationary pressures:
- A remarkable agricultural campaign, which supports food‑price stability.
- Underlying inflation remaining very low – projected at 0.2 % for 2026 – acting as a solid cushion to keep headline inflation below the 2 % ceiling.
Recent Monetary‑Policy Decision
At its second monetary‑policy meeting of 2026, Bank Al‑Maghrib confirmed the policy rate at 2.25 %, in line with market expectations. This marked the fifth consecutive meeting of a “status‑quo” stance after an accommodative cycle that saw three successive 25‑basis‑point cuts between June 2024 and March 2025.
Looking ahead, AGR notes that a gradual normalisation of Brent prices combined with a medium‑term disinflation trend could reopen the door to another easing move in the second half of 2027.