Global Economy
Moroccan Manufacturers Forecast Production Surge in Q3 2026 Amid Sector Shifts
Morocco's manufacturing sector is poised for growth in the third quarter of 2026, according to the latest High Commission for Planning survey. While food processing, chemicals, and mineral products are expected to drive expansion, the automotive and apparel industries face headwinds. The broader industrial landscape shows mixed signals, with extractive industries anticipating gains from phosphate production, while energy output is set to rise. However, manufacturers continue to grapple with supply chain challenges and cash flow pressures.
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Morocco's industrial sector is preparing for a production uptick in the third quarter of 2026, driven by strength in key manufacturing segments, according to a recent quarterly survey released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
Manufacturing Sector Shows Mixed Growth Signals
The HCP's comprehensive survey of manufacturing, extractive, energy, and construction industries reveals that manufacturers are forecasting increased output for Q3 2026. This optimistic outlook is primarily anchored in three dynamic sectors: food processing, chemical manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products.
However, the growth trajectory is not uniform across all industrial branches. The automotive sector, traditionally a cornerstone of Morocco's export-oriented manufacturing, is expected to experience a contraction. Similarly, apparel manufacturers and paper and cardboard producers anticipate declining activity levels during the upcoming quarter.
On the employment front, industrial leaders project overall stability in workforce levels, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring amid uncertain market conditions.
Extractive Industries Bank on Phosphate Recovery
Morocco's extractive sector, heavily reliant on phosphate production, anticipates a production surge in the third quarter. The positive outlook is predominantly driven by expectations of higher phosphate output, a critical component of the nation's export economy.
Contrary to production trends, extractive industry executives forecast workforce reductions during the same period, potentially reflecting efficiency initiatives or automation investments.
Energy Sector Poised for Expansion
The energy industry is projecting robust growth for Q3 2026, with expansion concentrated in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning production and distribution. Unlike the extractive sector, energy companies anticipate adding to their workforce during this period.
Environmental Industries Maintain Steady Course
Companies operating in environmental services expect stable production levels in the third quarter, particularly in water capture, treatment, and distribution activities. Employment in this sector is also forecast to remain unchanged.
Q2 2026 Performance Review
Looking back at the second quarter of 2026, the HCP reports that manufacturing production experienced growth, propelled by strong performance in automotive manufacturing, electrical equipment production, and chemicals. This growth occurred despite contractions in paper and cardboard manufacturing and textile production.
Order books across the manufacturing sector are considered at normal levels by business leaders, while employment remained stable. The capacity utilization rate (CUR) for manufacturing stood at 75% during Q2 2026.
Supply Chain Pressures Persist
A significant finding from the survey reveals that 34% of manufacturing firms encountered difficulties sourcing raw materials during the second quarter, with foreign-sourced materials presenting the most acute challenges. Despite these headwinds, raw material inventory levels were assessed as adequate.
Cash flow conditions remain challenging, with 19% of manufacturing executives reporting liquidity difficulties. The apparel sector faces particularly acute pressure, with approximately 27% of companies in this branch experiencing cash flow constraints.
Sectoral Performance Snapshots
Extractive Industry Q2 Results: Production declined due to reduced phosphate output, while selling prices increased. The sector experienced workforce reductions during this period.
Energy Sector Q2 Performance: Production rose, driven primarily by increased activity in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning generation and distribution. Prices for energy products also increased, though employment levels decreased.
Environmental Services Q2 Trends: Production remained stable, attributed to stagnant activity in water capture, treatment, and distribution. Order books maintained normal levels, and employment was unchanged.
The survey results paint a picture of a Moroccan industrial landscape navigating sector-specific dynamics, with growth opportunities balanced against operational challenges including supply chain disruptions and financial pressures.