Global Economy
Gold Surges to $4,150 as Fed Rate‑Cut Odds Climb Above 80%
Gold prices nudged higher on Wednesday, reaching roughly $4,150 per ounce – a level not seen in nearly two weeks. The rally was sparked by delayed U.S. economic data that revived expectations of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut in December, with market odds now above 80 %. A slowdown in retail sales and steady producer‑price inflation added to the narrative, while easing geopolitical tensions after a Ukraine‑Russia peace initiative tempered safe‑haven demand.
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Gold climbs to $4,150 amid rising Fed cut expectations
On Wednesday, November 26, 2025, spot gold rose to approximately $4,150 per ounce, holding near its highest level in almost two weeks. The upward move was triggered by the release of delayed U.S. economic data that reinforced market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Key data points shaping the market view:
- Retail sales: September growth slowed to just 0.2 % after a stronger increase in August, indicating a weakening consumer spend.
- Producer‑price index (PPI): Inflationary pressure remained broadly in line with forecasts, keeping price‑rise concerns alive.
- Fed commentary: Several officials have signaled support for a rate reduction next month, citing a soft labour market.
Investors now price in more than an 80 % probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut, up from about 50 % a week earlier. However, the rally is being tempered by easing geopolitical risk after Ukrainian authorities announced a peace plan with Russia, which diminishes demand for safe‑haven assets such as gold.
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