Twin Capital Gestion Sees Favorable Fundamentals but a More Selective 2026 Market

Twin Capital Gestion’s Q1 macro‑market note paints a picture of a readable yet less linear macro‑financial environment for 2026. While bond markets remain under pressure with a steepening secondary curve and high short‑term volatility, equity markets have shifted from the runaway gains of 2025 to a more selective consolidation phase. The asset manager still expects solid GDP growth around 5 % and a dividend yield close to 4 %, supporting a positive outlook for the MASI, albeit with a tighter valuation regime. The firm forecasts a 10‑15 % rise in the MASI for the year, driven primarily by earnings growth and dividend distribution, while cautioning that investors will need disciplined stock‑selection (alpha) rather than reliance on market beta.

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