Central Banks Grapple with Middle East Conflict and Energy Surge: Rate Outlook in Turbulent Times

The ongoing war in the Middle East and the resulting spike in energy prices are putting central banks under renewed pressure, especially after the 2022 inflation shock. Investors will watch closely how the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other policymakers adjust their rate paths in the coming weeks. With oil hovering near $100 per barrel and natural‑gas prices soaring, the market now expects only a single 25‑basis‑point cut from the Fed this year, while the ECB is likely to keep rates steady before a possible hike later in the summer.

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