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2026 Outlook for Morocco’s Dirham: Stability, Liquidity and Exchange‑Rate Forecasts

After a solid appreciation of the Moroccan dirham at the end of 2025, analysts expect 2026 to be marked by relative stability. The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to pause its rate‑cut cycle before delivering one or two modest reductions, while the European Central Bank stays neutral as inflation hovers around its 2 % target. Combined with a steady domestic monetary stance from Bank Al‑Maghrib and improving FX‑liquidity, the dirham should face only technical moves driven by the USD/MAD and EUR/MAD pairs. Short‑term forecasts point to a slight uptick in USD/MAD to around 9.17‑9.21 and a EUR/MAD range of 10.77‑10.82, with medium‑term levels sliding toward 9.10 and 10.80 respectively. Volatility is expected to remain moderate, but market participants should keep an eye on Fed timing and global liquidity conditions.

January 9th, 2026
3 min read
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Expert Summary

After a solid appreciation of the Moroccan dirham at the end of 2025, analysts expect 2026 to be marked by relative stability. The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to pause its rate‑cut cycle before delivering one or two modest reductions, while the European Central Bank stays neutral as inflation hovers around its 2 % target. Combined with a steady domestic monetary stance from Bank Al‑Maghrib and improving FX‑liquidity, the dirham should face only technical moves driven by the USD/MAD and EUR/MAD pairs.

Short‑term forecasts point to a slight uptick in USD/MAD to around 9.17‑9.21 and a EUR/MAD range of 10.77‑10.82, with medium‑term levels sliding toward 9.10 and 10.80 respectively. Volatility is expected to remain moderate, but market participants should keep an eye on Fed timing and global liquidity conditions.

After a solid appreciation of the Moroccan dirham at the end of 2025, analysts expect 2026 to be marked by relative stability. The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to pause its rate‑cut cycle before delivering one or two modest reductions, while the European Central Bank stays neutral as inflation hovers around its 2 % target. Combined with a steady domestic monetary stance from Bank Al‑Maghrib and improving FX‑liquidity, the dirham should face only technical moves driven by the USD/MAD and EUR/MAD pairs. Short‑term forecasts point to a slight uptick in USD/MAD to around 9.17‑9.21 and a EUR/MAD range of 10.77‑10.82, with medium‑term levels sliding toward 9.10 and 10.80 respectively. Volatility is expected to remain moderate, but market participants should keep an eye on Fed timing and global liquidity conditions.

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