IEA Slashes 2026 Oil Supply‑Demand Forecast as Hormuz Remains Closed

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has further reduced its 2026 global oil supply‑demand balance, now forecasting a daily deficit of 1.8 million barrels – more than double its estimate a month ago. The outlook is being driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which blocks roughly 20% of world oil shipments, and continued disruptions to Russian refining capacity. The agency warns that without a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, the deficit could push oil inventories to historic lows, while refining margins in the Atlantic basin have surged to record levels. It nonetheless sees a possible modest surplus by the fourth quarter of 2026 if flows normalize, but stresses that the recovery remains fragile.

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