OPEC+ May Boost Oil Output Starting April Amid Record Summer Demand

OPEC+ is reportedly evaluating a restart of oil production hikes from April, according to three sources within the cartel. The move is aimed at meeting what is expected to be a record‑high summer demand, while geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran continues to underpin price support.

Why the increase matters

A new lift in output would allow Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC members such as the United Arab Emirates to reclaim market share. This comes at a time when other producers – Russia, Venezuela and Iran – are constrained by Western sanctions, and Kazakhstan is grappling with a series of operational setbacks.

Eight producers set to meet on 1 March

• Saudi Arabia
• Russia
• United Arab Emirates
• Kazakhstan
• Kuwait
• Iraq
• Algeria
• Oman

These eight members have already lifted their collective quotas by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) for the period from April to the end of December 2025 – about 3 % of global oil demand. They agreed to hold the line on any further increases from January through March 2026 because of a seasonally weaker consumption pattern.

Potential restart in April

The three anonymous insiders say the bloc is leaning toward resuming quota hikes in April. A further three sources familiar with OPEC+ deliberations echo the same expectation. No final decision has been taken yet; discussions will continue in the weeks leading up to the March 1 meeting.

Market reaction

On the trading floor, the prospect of higher supply briefly pushed Brent crude down to $66.89 a barrel before it recovered to $67.57 at 15:35 GMT, buoyed by U.S. inflation data.

Analyst commentary

“OPEC’s production‑adjustment signals always attract attention, especially when they come as a surprise,” notes Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank.

OPEC+, the alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (including Russia), accounts for roughly half of worldwide oil output.