Stocks Market
MASI Regains Ground but Remains Nervous as Bond Yields and Oil Weigh on Sentiment
After a sharp 5.49% drop the previous week, the MASI index rebounded 1.28% over five sessions, briefly piercing the 18,000-point mark before losing momentum and closing at 17,818.09 points. The recovery was uneven, with three consecutive down days undermining the initial enthusiasm, while the index remains 5.46% below its January level.
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Market Rebound Fades Quickly
The Moroccan equity market staged a tentative recovery after the previous week’s steep sell-off. The MASI advanced 1.28% over five sessions, but the optimism faded midweek. The index surged 2.27% on Monday and added another 0.48% on Tuesday, briefly crossing the symbolic 18,000-point threshold. Yet Wednesday through Friday brought three consecutive declines: -0.20%, -0.95%, and -0.29%. The index settled at 17,818.09 points, leaving it still 5.46% lower than its January opening.
The initial bounce was driven by relief after the previous week’s 5.49% correction, but it lacked staying power. Investors quickly refocused on familiar headwinds.
Monetary and Political Catalysts Absorbed
Bank Al-Maghrib kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday, a decision that had been widely priced in. The September 23 legislative elections, which saw the PAM party win, produced no visible rupture in stock prices. With both central bank policy and the electoral outcome now in the rear-view mirror, attention has shifted back to the core concerns of recent weeks: the level of interest rates, oil prices, and corporate earnings.
Bond Market Tightens Its Grip
The relief in bond markets is not forthcoming. According to BKGR, short-term yields are still heading higher, with tensions spreading across the entire curve. The 30-year yield climbed more than 15 basis points in the secondary market, the 20-year added over 12 basis points, and even short maturities have risen. This competition from fixed income is becoming harder for equities to ignore, particularly with the Treasury’s funding needs elevated ahead of October maturities.
Oil Offers Brief Respite
Crude oil provided a moment of calm on Friday, with Brent falling 2.1% to $104.32 on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. However, the level remains elevated and continues to pressure inflation expectations, transportation costs, and profit margins across several listed sectors.
Earnings Season Brings Stock-Picking Back into Focus
Semiannual reports have injected fresh substance into the market. SMI more than doubled its profit to 243 MDH, boosted by the surge in silver prices. Fenie Brossette posted a 55% jump in consolidated net profit, while Boissons du Maroc saw its RNPG decline by 8.6%. Three results, three diverging trajectories — confirming that the 2026 market is less about broad macro bets and more about selecting individual stocks.
Outlook: A Phase of Reduced Visibility
After two particularly turbulent weeks, the MASI has entered a less predictable phase. Selling pressure has eased, but the rebound lacks the depth needed to erase the prior slide. With central bank decisions and elections now behind it, the market can return to what it does best: evaluating companies on their fundamentals, while interest rates continue to set the bar for investor expectations.