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Bank Al-Maghrib cuts growth and inflation forecasts for 2026
Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has trimmed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% and inflation to 0.7%, citing a slowdown in non‑agricultural activity and a rebound in the agricultural sector. The central bank kept its key policy rate at 2.25% and expects the energy bill to rise sharply, widening the current‑account deficit while fiscal gaps stay elevated. Underlying inflation is set to accelerate in 2027, offsetting the benign price outlook for 2026.
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Bank Al-Maghrib slashes 2026 growth and inflation forecasts
Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) announced on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, a substantial downward revision of its macroeconomic outlook for Morocco. The central bank now projects GDP growth of 4.4% for 2026, a reduction from the 5.2% forecast issued in June, and expects inflation to fall to 0.7% from a previous estimate of 1.5%.
The slowdown is concentrated in non‑agricultural activities. After a 4.5% rise in 2025, these sectors are set to expand by just 3.1% in 2026, with extractive and manufacturing industries performing weaker than anticipated. External conditions are also pressuring energy import costs and the profitability of firms that rely on imported inputs.
Agriculture, however, is expected to support growth. BAM foresees a 16% rebound in agricultural value added, backed by an estimated cereal harvest of 93 million quintals. Looking ahead to 2027, agricultural value added is likely to drop by 7.6% assuming an average cereal output of 50 million quintals, prompting BAM to lower its 2027 growth projection to 2.9% from 3.1% previously.
Inflation has been modest so far in 2026, averaging only 0.3% over the first eight months, aided by lower food prices and government subsidies for road transport operators. The保持 of butane gas and electricity prices also curbs the pass‑through of higher global energy costs. For 2027, BAM forecasts overall inflation of 1.5%, down from a prior 2.1%, while underlying inflation is expected to accelerate from –0.2% in 2026 to 2.2% in 2027.
The revisions come as BAM anticipates a 28.4% jump in the energy bill, reaching 138.1 billion dirhams this year. The current‑account deficit is likely to expand from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026. Fiscal deficits remain at 3.4% of GDP for 2026, with the 2027 estimate rising to 3.5%.
Despite the downgraded outlook, the central bank’s policy council kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. The decision reflects expectations of moderate inflation over the medium term, ongoing dynamics in non‑agricultural activity, and persistent economic uncertainties.
Key Takeaways
- 2026 GDP growth forecast cut to 4.4% from 5.2%
- Inflation forecast reduced to 0.7% from 1.5%
- Non‑agricultural growth to slow to 3.1%
- Agricultural sector to rebound 16% in 2026
- Energy bill up 28.4% to 138.1 bn MAD
- Current‑account deficit rises to 4.6% of GDP
- Policy rate stays at 2.25%