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Bank Al-Maghrib Raises 2025 Growth Forecast to 5% and Sets a Tighter Fiscal Path

At its quarterly meeting on 16 December 2025, Bank Al-Maghrib’s Board unveiled an upgraded macro‑economic outlook. The central bank now expects GDP to grow 5 % in 2025 and to settle around 4.5 % on average in 2026‑27, while keeping inflation comfortably below the 2 % ceiling. The updated projections also show a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit—from 3.9 % of GDP in 2024 to 3.6 % in 2025 and 3.4 % in both 2026 and 2027—backed by stronger investment‑driven growth in the non‑agricultural sector and a modest rebound in agricultural output.

December 16th, 2025
2 min read
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Expert Summary

At its quarterly meeting on 16 December 2025, Bank Al-Maghrib’s Board unveiled an upgraded macro‑economic outlook. The central bank now expects GDP to grow 5 % in 2025 and to settle around 4.5 % on average in 2026‑27, while keeping inflation comfortably below the 2 % ceiling.

The updated projections also show a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit—from 3.9 % of GDP in 2024 to 3.6 % in 2025 and 3.4 % in both 2026 and 2027—backed by stronger investment‑driven growth in the non‑agricultural sector and a modest rebound in agricultural output.

At its quarterly meeting on 16 December 2025, Bank Al-Maghrib’s Board unveiled an upgraded macro‑economic outlook. The central bank now expects GDP to grow 5 % in 2025 and to settle around 4.5 % on average in 2026‑27, while keeping inflation comfortably below the 2 % ceiling. The updated projections also show a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit—from 3.9 % of GDP in 2024 to 3.6 % in 2025 and 3.4 % in both 2026 and 2027—backed by stronger investment‑driven growth in the non‑agricultural sector and a modest rebound in agricultural output.

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