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Bank Al-Maghrib Maintains Key Interest Rate at 2.25% Amid Global Uncertainty
Bank Al-Maghrib has decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing moderate inflation expectations, strong non-agricultural sector growth, and heightened global uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions. The central bank emphasized its commitment to closely monitor both domestic and international developments, particularly in the Middle East, to inform future monetary policy decisions.
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Bank Al-Maghrib Holds Interest Rate Steady at 2.25%
In its first quarterly meeting of 2026, Bank Al-Maghrib's Board decided to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25%, citing a balanced economic outlook and heightened global uncertainty. The decision comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which are adding to existing uncertainties linked to the Ukraine conflict and U.S. trade policies.
Economic Outlook and Inflation Projections
Nationally, the central bank projects continued strong momentum in non-agricultural sectors, driven by investment in economic and social infrastructure. Agricultural production is expected to rebound significantly due to favorable climatic conditions over recent months. Inflation is forecast to remain moderate, with annual rates of 0.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, supported by improved food supply and lower fuel prices.
Global Context and Commodity Markets
Globally, the economy is projected to grow at 3.3% in 2025, slowing slightly to 2.9% in 2026 before recovering to 3.1% in 2027. Advanced economies, particularly the U.S. and the Eurozone, face mixed growth prospects amid geopolitical risks. Commodity markets remain volatile, with Brent crude oil prices expected to rise to $78.9 per barrel in 2026 before easing to $64.5 in 2027. Phosphate and food prices are also under pressure due to supply chain disruptions.
External Sector and Public Finances
The current account deficit is expected to widen to 3.1% of GDP in 2026, driven by higher energy and equipment imports. However, exports of automotive products and phosphates are projected to grow, supported by strong demand. Official reserves are forecast to reach 482.1 billion dirhams by 2027, covering over five months of imports. On the fiscal front, the budget deficit is expected to decline to 3.4% of GDP by 2027, reflecting improved revenue collection and controlled expenditure growth.
Monetary Policy and Currency Stability
Bank Al-Maghrib emphasized its readiness to adjust policy as needed, based on evolving economic data and global developments. The dirham's exchange rate is expected to depreciate slightly in nominal terms in 2026 but appreciate marginally in 2027, remaining broadly in line with economic fundamentals. The central bank will continue to monitor liquidity conditions and credit growth, which are projected to accelerate in line with economic activity.