Stocks Market
Oil Edges Lower as Saudi Arabia Faces Pressure Over Export Flows
Brent and WTI ended slightly lower on Thursday as traders discounted the risk of a prolonged Saudi supply shock, even as drone attacks continue to target Riyadh's energy infrastructure. Prices remain above $100 per barrel, while reports of partial recovery at Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and possible extra Saudi crude cargoes via Oman are cushioning the market. Analysts warn that the conflict outlook remains difficult to model and that tensions are intensifying in refined products.
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Markets, Friday 18 September 2026 — Oil prices ended slightly lower on Thursday, with traders pricing in the possibility that Saudi Arabia would continue exporting at a steady pace despite attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Brent and WTI under pressure
The North Sea Brent crude for November delivery lost 0.95% to $104.82 per barrel. The US equivalent, West Texas Intermediate for October delivery, slipped 0.51% to $101.91.
Pipeline repair tempers but does not remove risk
Reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline could recover about half of its capacity in the coming days had already pushed oil prices lower on Wednesday. The pipeline allows Riyadh to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by routing flows through the Red Sea.
Aramco explores alternative supply routes
Saudi national oil company Aramco is also looking for alternatives. According to analysts at Mind Energy, Riyadh could offer additional crude oil cargoes via Oman to ease concerns over supply disruptions.
Conflict risk keeps markets on edge
Since the surprise offensive, Yemen's Houthis have mainly targeted Saudi oil interests. JPMorgan analysts said they were unable to model the outcome of the conflict, the first time since February that they had expressed such uncertainty. They had assumed that the US administration had economic red lines it would be reluctant to cross, including $100 oil, gasoline near $5 per gallon, global inflation at 4%, or a 10-year US Treasury yield close to 5%.
Refined products face the sharpest tension
Tensions are most acute in refined products. Added to the Middle East conflict are attacks between Russia and Ukraine on enemy infrastructure. In Russia, the Syzran and Saratov refineries halted production after Ukrainian drone attacks, according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management.
Outlook
Oil remains above $100 per barrel, and the geopolitical risk premium continues to weigh on energy markets. A faster normalization of Saudi exports and the arrival of alternative cargoes could limit further price gains, but any new attack or pipeline disruption could reignite supply fears and inflation pressures.