Global Economy
Non‑Financial Merchant Services Outlook: 36% CEOs Expect Activity Rise in Q1 2026
The latest quarterly survey by Morocco’s Haut‑Commissariat au Plan (HCP) shows that more than a third of CEOs in the non‑financial merchant services (SMNF) sector anticipate higher activity in the first quarter of 2026. While 36 % forecast growth, 14 % expect a slowdown, reflecting divergent trends across sub‑sectors such as land transport, warehousing and water transport. Overall, demand is seen as stable by 63 % of respondents, with a modest increase in staffing projected by 22 % of firms. Capacity utilisation sits at 74 %, and investment in equipment replacement and activity expansion remains the dominant spending priority.
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Survey Overview
The Haut‑Commissariat au Plan (HCP) released its quarterly business climate survey for the non‑financial merchant services sector (SMNF). According to the poll, 36 % of CEOs expect overall activity to rise in Q1 2026, while 14 % foresee a decline.
Sub‑Sector Drivers
- Growth expected in "Land Transport and Pipeline Transport" and "Warehousing & Auxiliary Transport Services".
- Decline expected in "Water Transport", "Leasing and Rental Activities", and "Real Estate Activities".
Demand and Staffing Outlook
When asked about demand, 63 % of respondents anticipate stability and 28 % anticipate an increase. Regarding employment, 61 % expect a steady workforce, while 22 % plan to hire more staff.
Q4‑2025 Retrospective
Looking back at the fourth quarter of 2025, 49 % of CEOs reported a contraction in activity, whereas 34 % indicated growth. The contraction was attributed to lower activity in "Telecommunications", "Air Transport" and "Leasing & Rental". Conversely, "Hospitality", "Land Transport & Pipeline" and "Warehousing" recorded gains.
Capacity Utilisation
The sector’s capacity utilisation rate (TUC) settled at 74 % during the survey period.
Order Books and Employment Trends
Order books were described as "normal" by 84 % of CEOs. Employment rose according to 23 % of respondents, while 60 % saw levels remain unchanged.
Investment Priorities in 2025
Investments in 2025 were dominated by two themes: replacement of existing equipment and expansion of operational capacity. These priorities were cited by 83 % of SMNF leaders.