Middle East Tensions Pose Dual Risk Scenarios for Morocco's Economy

BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) outlines two risk scenarios for Morocco stemming from the escalating U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The central case assumes a contained escalation that could trim 2026 growth by 0.4 percentage points and push inflation to around 2 %. The adverse scenario envisions a prolonged war, cutting growth by about 1 point, driving inflation to 3‑4 %, widening budget and current‑account deficits, and tightening monetary policy space. The analysis stresses the need for structural resilience through energy diversification and fiscal buffers.

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