Stocks Market
AGR Keeps Hold Rating on Maroc Telecom, Cuts Target Price to 100 MAD
Attijari Global Research (AGR) has affirmed its 'hold' recommendation for Maroc Telecom, adjusting its price target downward to 100 dirhams from the previous 110 dirhams. The brokerage highlights that moderate profit growth means the stock's dividend yield will be the primary driver of shareholder returns, projecting an average yield of 4.5% based on a 65% payout ratio. AGR notes that 2025 results fell slightly short of expectations due to higher depreciation and a lower-than-planned payout, but the year confirms the firm's initial growth outlook. Looking ahead, AGR expects a shift in dividend policy to fund investments tied to the national 'Digital Morocco 2030' strategy and the 2030 World Cup, while raising the capex-to-revenue ratio to 23% and forecasting an EBITDA margin around 50%.
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Attijari Global Research (AGR) has maintained its "hold" recommendation on Maroc Telecom, revising its price target to 100 dirhams from the earlier 110 dirhams. The adjustment reflects a modest update to the group’s growth scenario.
Dividend Yield as Key Driver
Given the medium‑term outlook for Maroc Telecom’s earnings capacity, AGR points out that the dividend yield (D/Y) will become the main catalyst for the stock’s stock‑exchange performance. Using the revised target price and a revised payout ratio of 65%, the average dividend yield works out to approximately 4.5%, which AGR considers a satisfactory level capable of supporting a share price around the 100‑dirham mark.
2025 Performance Review
The broker notes that Maroc Telecom’s 2025 results came in slightly below initial forecasts, mainly because higher‑than‑expected depreciation linked to sustained capital expenditures and a payout of 50% fell short of AGR’s 70% target.
Nevertheless, 2025 reinforced AGR’s original growth scenario, first outlined in a previous research note, which anticipates a recalibration of the group’s historical dividend policy to fund investments tied to the national "Digital Morocco 2030" strategy and the organisation of the 2030 World Cup.
Future Investment Outlook
For the forecasting period 2026‑2027, AGR has raised the capex‑to‑revenue ratio to 23% from the earlier 21%. Correspondingly, the EBITDA margin is now projected to hover around 50% (down from the earlier 52% estimate). These adjustments underscore the company’s commitment to a higher investment intensity while maintaining a solid profitability base.